Brexit: How Will UK Agriculture Fare?

There is little doubt that Brexit would have significant implications for UK agriculture, a sector with strong trade links to the EU and strong reliance on CAP income support. This article reports preliminary results from employing a Computable General Equilibrium Model, a Partial Equilibrium Model and Farm Level Models to explore selected trade and domestic policy scenarios post‐Brexit. These allow for the estimation of changes in producer prices, production and farm incomes against a baseline scenario of continued EU membership. Under a Free Trade Agreement with the EU, agricultural impacts are relatively modest. By contrast, unilateral removal of import tariffs has significant negative impacts on prices, production and incomes. Adoption of the EU's WTO tariff schedule for all imports favours net importers (e.g. dairy) and harms net exporters (e.g. sheep). Given the strong dependence of most UK farms on direct payments, their removal worsens negative impacts of new trade arrangements and offsets positive impacts. Impacts vary across different types and sizes of farm, but also regionally. However, the period of adjustment to new trade and domestic policy conditions may prove very challenging for a large number of farm businesses.     

Soldiers don't go mad: Shell shock and accounting intransigence in the British Army 1914-18

This research examines intransigence in accounting systems. Using historical research methods and archival sources, it explores intransigence in the Royal Army Medical Corps’ accounting systems in the context of the incidence of shell shock among British Army soldiers fighting at the battlefront during the First World War. The Army did not recognise shell shock as a medical condition and made few changes to its medical accounting systems for soldiers with shell shock. The four factors of system stability of the AGIL scheme (adaptation, goal attainment, integration, latency) are used to understand the limited medical accounting response to shell shock. This research indicates that in addition to historical and internal political reasons for intransigence, intransigence will occur unless a factor in the AGIL scheme is sufficiently impaired to make the accounting system unstable and force system change. This research finding has contemporary relevance, explaining accounting intransigence in response to issues of social concern.     

Seemingly inconsistent analyst revisions

In about 20%–30% of cases where an analyst revises two outputs (namely, earnings estimates, target prices, or stock recommendations) simultaneously, the two estimates are revised in opposite directions. Existing literature notes that these inconsistent outputs are widespread, and concludes that they are lower-quality, driven by strategic bias, and are viewed as less valid by investors. We find that these characterizations are generally inaccurate. Apparent inconsistency is largely driven by accounting and economic factors, with only limited evidence that investment banking-related conflicts play a role. Moreover, inconsistent outputs are neither less accurate than consistent outputs nor do they resolve less investor uncertainty upon their release. Overall, our results suggest that researchers should be cautious in interpreting the correlation between analyst outputs as a measure of bias or quality, and in using a single analyst output as a proxy for an analyst's overall views.     

Do Analysts' Cash Flow Forecasts Encourage Managers to Improve the Firm's Cash Flows? Evidence from Tax Planning

Recent research finds that analysts' cash flow forecasts have meaningful financial reporting ramifications, but, to date, the identified effects are unlikely to yield meaningful cash flow benefits. This study examines whether analysts' cash flow forecasts encourage managers to enhance the firm's cash flow position through tax avoidance activities. We evaluate the change in cash tax avoidance after analysts begin issuing cash flow forecasts relative to a propensity score matched control sample of firms without cash flow forecasts. Consistent with analysts' cash flow forecasts encouraging tax avoidance that enhances the firm's cash flow health, we find a negative association between cash tax payments and analysts' cash flow coverage. Additional analysis suggests this association is driven primarily by strategies to permanently avoid rather than to temporarily defer tax payments and that increased cash tax avoidance activity represents a nontrivial component of the overall increase in reported operating cash flows after the initiation of analysts' cash flow coverage.     

Valuing the project: a knowledge-action response to network governance in collaborative research

The delegation of research to self-directed networks is a relatively new strategy to focus academic endeavour on public priorities. Networks involve policy-makers, knowledge producers and knowledge users in unfamiliar governance and management relationships. Here we reflect, as practitioners, on research networks as complex governance systems and on their projects as knowledge-action systems designed to deliver public value. Projects represent the currency in which delegated research is issued, but their conversion into monetary grants and awards diverts attention from their potential as boundary organizations or communities of practice in the production of societal knowledge and understanding. Recognizing and supporting projects as scalable components of enduring knowledge-action systems, rather than as transient instances of research funding, is key to sustaining delivery of public value under conditions of network governance.     

Earnings benchmark hierarchy

We examine the hierarchy of earnings benchmarks in Australia. Our results demonstrate a disconnect between the actions managers appear to take and the market reaction to firms exceeding or just missing earnings benchmarks. The actions of managers appear consistent with them acting in a manner to avoid making losses and earnings decreases. On the other hand, the market reacts in a manner where the analysts’ earnings forecast is at the top of the earnings benchmark hierarchy. However, for firms without analyst coverage, the reporting of positive earnings is the predominant earnings benchmark.     

Bias-corrected estimates of reduction of post-surgery length of stay and corresponding cost savings through the widespread national implementation of fast-tracking after liver transplantation: a quasi-experimental study

Background: Fast-tracking is an approach adopted by Mayo Clinic in Florida’s (MCF) liver transplant (LT) program, which consists of early tracheal extubation and transfer of patients to surgical ward, eliminating a stay in the intensive care unit in select patients. Since adopting this approach in 2002, MCF has successfully fast-tracked 54.3% of patients undergoing LT.

Objectives: This study evaluated the reduction in post-operative length of stay (LOS) that resulted from the fast-tracking protocol and assessed the potential cost saving in the case of nationwide implementation.

Methods: A propensity score for fast-tracking was generated based on MCF liver transplant databases during 2011–2013. Various propensity score matching algorithms were used to form control groups from the United Network of Organ Sharing Standard Analysis and Research (STAR) file that had comparable demographic characteristics and health status to the treatment group identified in MCF. Multiple regression and matching estimators were employed for evaluation of the post-surgery LOS. The algorithm generated from the analysis was also applied to the STAR data to determine the proportion of patients in the US who could potentially be candidates for fast-tracking, and the potential savings.

Results: The effect of the fast-tracking on the post-transplant LOS was estimated at approximately from 2.5 (p-value?=?0.001) to 3.2 (p-value?Conclusion: The fast-track program was found to be effective in reducing post-transplant LOS, although the reduction appeared to be less than previously reported. Nationwide implementation of fast-tracking could result in substantial cost savings without compromising the patient outcome.     

42 Years of Urban Growth and Industry Composition

In recent decades, knowledge spillovers have taken the helm as the driving force of growth in cities. The ease of communicating ideas and the sheer density of large urban areas have made this a plausible explanation for continued growth of employment and population in cities. However, there is little consensus on the nature of the optimal conditions for stimulating knowledge spillovers. This paper identifies these optimal conditions by exploring the relative importance of industry specialization, diversity and competition across all industries and all metropolitan areas from 1970 to 2011 in the U.S. Long-term employment growth in cities is found to be driven by industry diversity combined with a high level of competition. This combination fosters the greatest amount of cross-industry fertilization of ideas and knowledge spillovers.